Today, the US jobs report for May is due to be reported at 12:30 GMT, and as we get closer to the release time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of ten major banks, regarding the upcoming employment data. Most of the economists and researchers are expecting US NFP to post-reading in between -2.2M and -10M in May, while the consensus is -8M reading. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 19.8% for the month.
RBC Economics
“We are penciling in a 2.2M decline in payroll employment after April’s 20.5 million drop, and a further increase in the unemployment rate to 20%.”
Wells Fargo
“Our forecast is for a historic print of 8.0M jobs lost and for the unemployment rate to climb to 20%.”
NBF
“We are calling for a 7.5M drop in employment in May.”
CIBC
“Initial jobless claims have edged lower since the April payrolls report, but they still suggest that around 6M jobs were shed in May. The unemployment rate looks set to have peaked at 18.6% in May. With the jobs lost again concentrated in lower-paying industries, wages should have shown a 0.8% advance on the month, something that will be reversed as hiring in those industries resumes over the summer.”
ING
“The highlight of the US data calendar should be Friday’s May NFP jobs report, where we look for another big drop – minus 10M – and a rise in unemployment to 20%.”
Westpac
“We are expecting a 7.5M decline in employment in May and the unemployment rate to peak at 20%.”
Deutsche Bank
“Our US economists are predicting a -6.1M decline in nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate rising to 19.1%.”
Danske Bank
“We have pencilled in an employment drop of 10M but given the ‘strong’ private sector ADP jobs report earlier this week, which ‘only’ showed a drop of 2.7M, we may be too pessimistic.”
TDS
“We think the -8M consensus for payrolls is too weak; we forecast -3M. We expect less weakness than consensus in the unemployment rate as well, albeit with less conviction due to measurement challenges: We forecast a 2.8% rise to 17.5%, versus 19.5% for the consensus.”
Goldman Sachs
“Headline is estimated at 7.25M. Downward revisions to April payrolls are likely. The unemployment rate set to jump to 21.5%.”
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