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TD Securities analysts are looking for the US payrolls to trend modestly lower in April to 170k, following the near-200k print posted in the previous month.

Key Quotes

“In particular, while we expect a minor rebound in manufacturing jobs following two disappointing payroll prints, this is likely to be more than offset by a deceleration back to trend in job creation in the services sector, following a stronger-than-expected bump in March. That said, the blowout ADP employment report creates upside risks for another stronger-than-expected pace of service sector job creation in April.”

“All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate ticked down a tenth to 3.7%, assuming no major swings in the labor force participation rate.”

“Average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.2% m/m. This pace of wage growth should leave the annual print unchanged at 3.2%. However, if we get a “soft” 0.2% increase for last month, the annual pace in wage growth would slow to 3.1%.”