US: Payrolls likely to rise by 215k in November – TDS


In view of analysts at TD Securities, the jobs report is shaping up to be hawkish across the board and they expect payrolls to rise by 215k in November, as growth reverts back toward its recent trend.

Key Quotes

“The swing in payrolls over the prior two months suggest that hurricane impacts are complete. Removing the volatility, 3- to 6-month averages stood at 216k and 218k respectively. We look for payrolls to therefore normalize but remain strong in line with the resilience seen in job surveys, from regional Fed surveys to ISM indicators which on balance remain consistent with payrolls running at a +200k pace. Claims have ticked higher but not in the reference week and remain low. If anything we attribute the recent increase to holiday distortions.”

“Wages also have scope for a strong 0.3% print given the reference week and the announced Amazon hikes, leaving y/y growth at a new cycle high of 3.2%. Finally, we expect the unemployment rate to stabilize at its low of 3.7%, with risks skewed lower on a pullback in participation.”

FX: We do not think a payrolls beat will yield much as far as the USD is concerned. Instead, we think markets suffer from confirmation bias and will view the data asymmetrically with FX markets more sensitive to disappointment in the data rather than a positive surprise.”

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