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Analysts at Nomura not that in the US, the Philadelphia Fed business index fell to 19.9 in June, below expectations (Nomura and Consensus: 29.0), from 34.4 in May.

Key Quotes

“The shipment index rose about 3pp to 28.7, implying healthy activity in the current month. However, the index for new orders declined notably, down 23pp to 17.9, and the index for backlogged orders declined. These readings suggest some softening in momentum.”

“The Philly Fed survey stands in contrast to the Empire State survey, which indicated improved activity despite trade concerns. However, given that, in our view, the trade outlook worsened last week, some of the discrepancy between the two surveys could involve the relative time over which they were conducted, with the Empire State survey being released last week. While current activity appears to be strong, some of the trade concerns may have been reflected in forward-looking indicators.”