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Analysts at Nomura suggest that with the US unemployment rate at 3.8%, the lowest level since the 1960s, they expect initial jobless claims to remain low as firms face increased competition for workers.

Key Quotes

“Ongoing declines in initial and continuing claims seem to support our expectation of continued declines in the unemployment rate in 2018.”

Philly Fed survey: We expect the Philly Fed manufacturing survey in June to retreat somewhat following a substantial jump in May. We forecast a reading of 29.0 for June, 5.4pp below the reading of 34.4 in May. While we think manufacturing activity continued to accelerate in June, increased uncertainty over US trade policy likely weighed on business sentiment.”