US Q1 GDP growth was probably at about 2%, possible stronger – Scotia bank

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Analysts at Scotia bank believe that the US GDP growth is likely to be stronger in the first quarter despite the impact of the government shutdown. The US Q1 GDP report is due to be published later today at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“How soft was the soft patch? By historical standards, it might not have been terribly soft after all. 

“Scotiabank Economics estimates that Q1 GDP growth was probably at about 2% and possibly stronger. 

‘Nowcast’ model run by Scotia ‘… estimate of 2.4%.

Atlanta Fed’s ‘nowcast’ is at 2.8.

… but nowcasts that are based upon longer-run models don’t fully account for the effects of the US government shutdown.

Shutdown influences would knock 0.4% off Q1 according to the CBO’s estimate.

CBO estimates that ending the shutdown could add 1% to GDP growth in Q2.”

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