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Standard Chartered analysts note that the US has threatened to raise the tariff rate on USD 200bn of China’s imports to 25% from 10% on 10 May.

Key Quotes

“Two rounds of US tariffs have been implemented so far. ‘Round one’ entailed 25% tariffs on USD 50bn of goods, split into two tranches of USD 34bn and USD 16bn; these were implemented on 6 July and 23 August 2018, respectively.”

“Tariffs were originally due to be raised to 25% on 1 March 2019 (the end of the trade truce), but the US postponed this indefinitely in late February, citing progress on trade talks with China.”

“Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Vietnam have emerged as the top five ‘winners’ from this round of tariffs. Raising tariff rates further could increase the benefits to these economies; meanwhile, a sudden trade deal rolling back tariffs could see the winners become losers, and vice versa.”