As noted by a Reuters poll of economists, odds of a US recession have risen to 40% as markets readjust their views.
Key quotes
The probability of a U.S. recession in the next two years has jumped to 40 percent, according to the median of those polled, the highest since that question was first asked in May this year.
The range of forecasts, which runs from 15 to 75 percent, also points to a higher probability of a recession in the next two years compared to a poll conducted just last month, which had a median 35 percent chance.’
While economists in the latest poll unanimously said the central bank will raise rates on Dec. 19, the consensus points to just two increases in 2019, taking the fed funds rate to 2.75-3.00 percent by the end of next year.
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