According to Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, the inversion of the 3m-10yr US yield curve late last week has understandably put US recession risk back in the spotlight given its enviable track record as a predictor of US recessions. Key Quotes “The yield curve based model accurately predicted all five US recessions that occurred in-sample between 1970-1996 (i.e. the estimated probability of a recession exceeded 50%) and accurately predicted the two recessions that occurred out of sample in 2001 and 2008-2009 too.” “This same model currently estimates the probability of a US recession at a relatively high 20% over the next twelve months. But, if the curve remains inverted for another two months the probability rises to just over 40%; a very elevated reading.” FX Street FX Street FXStreet is the leading independent portal dedicated to the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. It was launched in 2000 and the portal has always been proud of their unyielding commitment to provide objective and unbiased information, to enable their users to take better and more confident decisions. View All Post By FX Street FXStreet News share Read Next “Interest-bearing accounts” the next big trend in crypto? FX Street 4 years According to Richard Franulovich, head of FX strategy at Westpac, the inversion of the 3m-10yr US yield curve late last week has understandably put US recession risk back in the spotlight given its enviable track record as a predictor of US recessions. Key Quotes "The yield curve based model accurately predicted all five US recessions that occurred in-sample between 1970-1996 (i.e. the estimated probability of a recession exceeded 50%) and accurately predicted the two recessions that occurred out of sample in 2001 and 2008-2009 too." "This same model currently estimates the probability of a US recession at a relatively high… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.
