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Analysts at Scotiabank offer a sneak peek at what to expect from Tuesday’s Retail Sales release.

Key quotes

“Total sales may dip by around – ½% m/m while sales ex-autos post a mild gain of a comparable magnitude.”  

“Vehicle sales carry about a one-fifth weight and should drag on the headline given we know that new vehicle sales were down 8.2% m/m in May partly due to chip shortages while auto prices in CPI were up by 1.6% m/m.”  

“The other ~70% of retail sales that are not made up of gas and new vehicle sales could be more resilient on reopening effects.”

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