Analysts at Nomura suggest that excluding sales of autos, food, gasoline and building materials, US core (“control group”) retail sales likely rose a steady 0.3% m-o-m in April.
“Retail activity appears to have been steady despite colder-than-usual weather in some regions in April. Employment in the core retail sector rose steadily. Various consumer and business surveys point to continued momentum in business activity led by robust consumer demand. Among the non-core components, sales at gasoline stations likely rebounded strongly, reflecting changes in energy prices in the month.”
“For sales at auto dealerships, we expect a sharp 0.7% decline as April vehicle sales data point to weaker vehicle purchases by consumers. For ex-autos retail sales, we expect a 0.4% m-o-m increase. Put together, we forecast a 0.2% m-o-m increase in total retail sales.”