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Previewing next key macroeconomic events from the US, TD Securities analysts said that Retail Sales  likely surged in March (forecast: +8.5% m/m) following a plunge in February (-3.0%) and a surge in January (+7.6%).

Key quotes

“The volatility reflects the impact of severe weather in February as well as the disbursement of stimulus payments in January and March, but the net result appears to have been booming growth in spending in Q1. Spending will probably fall in April.”

“The CPI probably surged, and not just due to energy prices this time. We caution against extrapolating, but the core reading will probably be boosted by a bounce in travel-related prices, most notably for airfares, hotels, and used cars. We see some upside risk for rents as well. Changes to the seasonal factors could also be a source of strength, with payback later in the year.”