Analysts at Nomura are forecasting a steady 0.4% m-o-m increase in US June core (“control”) retail sales after a solid 0.5% m-o-m in May, consistent with firm momentum in personal spending in Q2.
“Among noncore components, sales at auto and parts dealerships likely rose solidly given a strong increase in total light vehicle sales reported by WardsAuto. In addition, the reversion in retail gasoline prices in June from their highs in May suggests that receipts at gasoline station likely increased at a much more modest pace in in June after a sharp 2.0% m-o-m increase in May. Excluding autos, we forecast 0.3% m-o-m increase in retail sales. Altogether, we expect a 0.5% m-o-m gain in total retail sales in June.”