US equities have rallied close to 30% this year and will likely remain better bid in 2020, as historical data shows very big years in stocks rarely precede recessions.
When the S&P 500 has risen 20% or more over a calendar year, it’s had positive returns in the next one-two-thirds of the time. Average gains were more than 6.5%, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Also, since 1930, there have been 17 calendar years in which the S&P 500 gained 25% or more. A recession followed three times – in 1990, 1981 and 1937.
Indeed past performance isn’t always indicative of future results. That said, there are more positive data right now than negative, as pointed out by Katerina Simonetti, a senior vice president at UBS Financial Services while talking to Bloomberg.
As a result, the probability of equities putting on a good show next year is high.
The yen bulls expecting big gains in 2020 could be left disappointed. The anti-risk Japanese yen often benefits from risk aversion in the stock markets.
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