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Analysts at Nomura point out that the US and Canada reached a last-minute agreement on 30 September to bring Canada into the bilateral trade deal achieved roughly one month ago with Mexico.

Key Quotes

“Text of the updated NAFTA agreement, renamed the United States-MexicoCanada Agreement, or USMCA, will likely be submitted to the US Congress shortly. This should lead to a formal signing ceremony at the end of November, with final ratification in the first half of next year.”

“From here, ratification in the US will continue to follow the timeline mandated by trade promotion authority (TPA), the process that provides trade agreements with expedited congressional consideration.”

“After signing the agreement at end-November, the reporting and markup period will likely last a few months before the implementing legislation is introduced in the House and Senate. This process will likely culminate with Congress ratifying the agreement in late-Q1 or Q2 2019.”