Search ForexCrunch

The US Treasury yield curve is likely to invert – short-duration bond yields will rise above longer duration yields – in the next 1-2 years, according to Reuters poll of bond market experts.

An inverted yield curve is widely considered an advance indicator of recession. So, it seems to say that the bond market strategists are expecting the US economy to dip into recession in the next 24 months.

At press time, the spread between the two-year and 10-year yields is 27 basis points and is seen narrowing further to 17 basis points in a year from now.