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The US presidential election takes place on 3 November, and the race to determine who will face president Trump – the Democratic primaries – has officially kicked off. Bill Diviney, Senior economist at ABN Amro, analyzes the chances of the candidates in the primary contests.

Key quotes

“Primary contests take place in all 50 states, plus US overseas territories, to choose a presidential candidate. With 6 viable candidates and a relatively even split in support, the chances are relatively high that the contest does not produce a clear winner with more than 50% of the delegates.”

“All candidates support a $15 hourly minimum wage, higher corporation taxes, significant investment to combat climate change (a ‘green new deal’), and rejoining the Paris Climate and Iran Nuclear accords.”

“The frontrunner in both polls and betting markets is left-wing candidate Bernie Sanders. His radical policies include abolishing private health insurance and replacing it with a public ‘single payer’ system. He also proposes a wealth tax and significant rises in other taxes.”

“Centrist billionaire Michael Bloomberg has significant polling momentum, and his unorthodox strategy of focusing on the Super Tuesday contests could yet win him the nomination.”

“Opinion polls suggest all candidates – by varying margins – would beat Trump in a head-to-head, but it is historically rare for a presidential incumbent not to win a second term in the absence of a recession.”