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The perception that Donald Trump’s re-election is likely in November might have some holes, as national polls show Trump losing against most the democratic contenders. In the short term, who wins the Democratic nomination will be the most important focus, according to strategists at Standard Chartered Bank.

Key quotes

“Multiple indicators have combined to create a perception that Donald Trump’s re-election is likely in November. However, national polls have consistently shown that Trump is more likely to lose in presidential match-ups against most of the Democratic contenders.”

“Election outcomes will be determined by who wins the Democratic nomination and how the US economy is doing, or feels like it is doing, heading into the vote.”

“Election day turnout will be another key factor, with higher turnout tending to benefit Democrats; and, most importantly, how voting in a few crucial swing states affects Electoral College votes.”