Analysts at Nomura explained that the unemployment rate in the US jobs report is likely to tick down.
Key Quotes:
“With another strong month of employment growth, we expect the unemployment rate to tick down 0.1pp to 3.8% in September after remaining just barely at 3.9% in August (3.85%).”
“Part of the reason unemployment did not decline further in August was related to somewhat weak household employment growth, which will likely revert in September.”
“However, a sharp 2.3pp drop in the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for the population aged 16-24 could partly revert in September, putting some additional upward pressure on the unemployment rate and preventing it from falling below 3.8%.”
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