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“The economy will likely continue struggling for the next month or two, but with vaccinations accelerating and households looking cash rich a reopening of the economy could see growth reach multi-decade highs”, explains James Knightley, Chief International Economist at ING.

Key Quotes:

“The US economy started 2021 on a weak footing following three consecutive monthly falls in retail sales at the end of the year and news that 140,000 jobs were lost in December. With Covid containment measures continuing to weigh on sentiment and activity, we suspect that the economy will struggle through much of the first quarter.

However, the outlook thereafter is undoubtedly brightening. The US is getting close to averaging one million Covid vaccination doses a day with President Biden promising more resources to ramp up the process to 1.5 million and possibly even 2 million per day. With the warmer weather of spring approaching and hospitalisation numbers already falling, there is hope that a second quarter reopening of the economy is possible.”