When everybody says the same thing, there is room for suspicion. If everybody is long the dollar, who’s left to buy? Well, in some cases, there are good reasons for the consensus. In the case of the US dollar for 2015, the team at SocGen asks these questions and explains why this bullish USD view could be right, and what conditions are essential for this to happen: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: The biggest source of concern for dollar bulls is that the view is so consensual,notes SocGen. “The Fed has stopped buying government debt and is preparing markets for a rate-hiking cycle. The ECB has ambitious targets to increase the size of its balance sheet, the BOJ is embarked on even more aggressive monetary easing, and even the PBoC is easing policy…No wonder the consensus is bullish,” SocGen adds. The question then, according to SocGen, is: what can go wrong as well as how far could or should the dollar appreciate? “The obvious risk is that the Fed does not raise rates in 2015 – either because inflation surprises on the downside or because the forecast acceleration in growth peters out yet again,” SocGen warns. All in all, SocGen thinks that the consensus bullish USD view will likely prove right in 2015 on the following conditions. “The dollar will rally in 2015 as long as the Fed delivers at least one 25bp rate hike. It can rally by as much as 10% from here in trade-weighted terms if the Fed raises rates at least twice. And it can rally further than that if raising rates by 50bp causes a significant correction in global asset markets. In broad terms, a 5% dollar rally would be consistent with ongoing easing elsewhere, and 5-year TIPS yields rising to, say, 0.5-1,” SocGen argues. For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch. Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam Opinions share Read Next EUR/USD: Trading the UoM Consumer Sentiment December 2014 Kenny Fisher 8 years When everybody says the same thing, there is room for suspicion. If everybody is long the dollar, who's left to buy? Well, in some cases, there are good reasons for the consensus. In the case of the US dollar for 2015, the team at SocGen asks these questions and explains why this bullish USD view could be right, and what conditions are essential for this to happen: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: The biggest source of concern for dollar bulls is that the view is so consensual,notes SocGen. "The Fed has stopped buying government debt and is preparing… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk. 3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk. 5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.