USD/CAD expected to trade move in a 1.32-1.33 range in March – Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank, expect the USD/CAD pair to trade in March around the 1.32-1.33 range before moving to 1.31 in April.  

Key Quotes:  

“USD/CAD has fallen around 3.5% year-to-date but at one point the pair was 4.35% off the December 31st print of 1.3665 which was the highest level seen since May 2017. The bulk of the move happened on the first seven trading days of the year as the pair slumped 3.5%. Price action since then has tended to stay within the 1.31-1.34 range. Gamma has generally been better offered. Historical and implied vols have been falling and the risk reversal is close to the flattest it has been in years.”

“Although USD/CAD has generally been range trading in a 1.31-1.34 range following the sharp decline at the start of the year, an inverse head and shoulders pattern is potentially forming which would require a break above 1.33 and provide a target of 1.36 if it does come to fruition. That is not our base case in the near term but the pair is currently testing resistance at the 100 day moving average (dma) of 1.3269. On the downside, the 50dma has offered strong support over recent weeks with the pair dipping below there intraday but failing to close. Momentum indicators remain in neutral territory and the pair is not in strong trending territory.”

“We expect USD/CAD to primarily trade a 1.32-1.33 range in March before heading lower in April with the potential to retest 1.31. Further out, we expect an upside bias with USD/CAD mainly trading in the 1.32-1.34 range in H2 of this year.”