USD/CAD Forecast August 12-16 – Canadian dollar under pressure.

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USD/CAD pointed higher for a fourth successive week, as the Canadian dollar continues to lose ground. There are only two Canadian events on the schedule, so U.S. indicators could have a magnified effect on the pair’s movement. Here is an outlook for the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.
In Canada, the Ivey PMI improved to 54.2 in July, up from 52.4 a month earlier. This points to industry expansion. The week ended with key employment data. Employment change was dismal, as the July release came in at -24.2 thousand, well off the estimate of a gain of 15.2 thousand. This marked a second straight decline. The unemployment rate jumped to 5.7%, up from 5.5%.
In the U.S., the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI slowed to 53.7 in July, its lowest level in almost three years. This is indicative of weaker expansion in the services sector. The week wrapped up with inflation data, which remains at low levels. The producer price index was unchanged at 0.2%, matching the forecast. The core release declined by 0.2%, its first decline of the year.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  1. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: Thursday, 12:30. The ADP release helps analysts track the health of the labor market. The indicator rebounded in June, with a sharp gain of 30.4 thousand. Will we see another strong reading in July?
  2. Foreign Securities Purchases: Friday, 12:30. After two declines, domestic securities rebounded with a gain of C$10.2 billion, well above the forecast of C$5.02 billion. We now await the June release.

* All times are GMT

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

Technical lines from top to bottom:

We start with resistance at 1.3565.

1.3445 has held in resistance since the first week of June.

This is followed by 1.3385.

1.3350 was under pressure in resistance in mid-week trading, but held fast. This line has not been breached since mid-June.

1.3265 remained relevant throughout the week. The line starts the new trading week as a weak resistance line.

1.3175 is the first line of support.

1.3125 (mentioned last week) has some breathing room in support.

1.3048 has held since mid-July. 1.2916 is next.

1.2831 has held in support since early October. It is the final line for now.

I remain bearish on USD/CAD

The Canadian dollar hasn’t recorded a winning week since early July, and with the trade war between the U.S. and China heating up, investor risk appetite remains low.

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Kenny Fisher - Senior Writer A native of Toronto, Canada, Kenneth worked for seven years in the marketing and trading departments at Bendix, a foreign exchange company in Toronto. Kenneth is also a lawyer, and has extensive experience as an editor and writer.