USD/CAD Forecast: Markets Expecting a Hawkish Outcome from Powell

USD/CAD Forecast: Markets Expecting a Hawkish Outcome from Powell

  • Investors will pay attention to Powell’s speech for clues on future rate hikes.
  • The pair will rise further if Powell maintains a hawkish posture.
  • In the charts, the pair is up against strong resistance.

Today’s USD/CAD forecast is slightly bullish ahead of the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated address at the central bank’s Jackson Hole gathering. The US dollar advanced in early European trade on Friday, pushing USD/CAD higher.

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Powell’s speech, which begins at 10:00 ET (14:00 GMT), will be closely watched by traders to indicate how quickly the Fed intends to hike interest rates to stop inflation from exceeding 40-year highs.

In recent weeks, several Fed policymakers have been anxious to underline how crucial it is for the American central bank to bring inflation under control.

James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, was the most recent to make this claim on Thursday. He stated that he anticipates strong inflation to remain longer than many had anticipated and that current interest rates are not yet high enough to start reducing price pressures.

This tends to imply that Powell will keep his hawkish posture, probably pointing to another increase of 75 basis points in September, which can only help the dollar.

“Markets will be scanning Powell’s speech today from several different perspectives: inflation, growth outlook, front-loading, and any hint of easing in 2023,” said analysts at ING in a note.

“All these factors can play a different role in driving the reaction in the FX market, although we see a quite elevated risk that Powell may end up broadly matching the generally hawkish market expectations and avert any significant market shock.”

USD/CAD key events today

USD/CAD investors will pay attention to the PCE price index from the US and Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole gathering.

USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls facing a strong confluence of resistance

USD/CAD forecast

Looking at the 4-hour chart, we see the price trading below the 30-SMA and the RSI slightly below 50. It is a sign that the general trend is bearish. However, the current price action shows bulls are pushing the price up. Bears could not go beyond 1.29006, at which point bulls came in.

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If bulls were to take over, they would need to break above the descending trendline, the 30-SMA, and resistance at 1.30083. The downtrend will continue if this fails.

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Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal

Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He's well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.