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USD/CAD’s latest effort to punch above 1.40 is a key break in the opinion of analysts at TD Securities. 

Key quotes

“We think USD/CAD could start to consolidate in the 1.40/1.4330 area as wholesale policy efforts, should over time, alleviate panic. Nonetheless, we note that our positioning metrics suggest that CAD shorts have neared 2008 and 2016 extremes.”

“We reckon that as data becomes more available over the next several weeks, USD/CAD will eventually need to adjust higher to reflect the new growth reality/outlook.”

“A re-test of the 1.45/47 ranges observed in 2016 is as inevitable as the oil shock compound CAD’s woes and USD funding issues persist.”