USD/CAD: “Risk-on, risk-off” dynamic will remain key – Rabobank

Analysts from Rabobank forecast USD/CAD at 1.38 in one month, at 1.42 in three months and at 1.40 in nine months. They point out that crude oil prices matter of the Canadian dollar but is not the key in current times. 

Key Quotes: 

“We expect the level of oil prices will remain key for USD/CAD sensitivity. In other words, if oil keeps pushing higher, we can expect the relationship between oil and USD/CAD to increase. While if we move substantially lower, then we expect the relationship to decrease. As it stands, the relationship has picked up a bit in light of the recent rally and we some small downside for oil prices in the short term which will weigh on CAD. We are at the level now where oil matters but isn’t the key.”

“The main driver for USD/CAD has been equities for a few months and it is likely to remain equities in the coming months. That said, of course the pace of equity price moves do matter. Higher US equities are negative for USD/CAD (as USD sells off as risk appetite rises) and higher Canadian equities are negative for USD/CAD (as CAD rallies as risk appetite rises) so you end up with a multiplied impact. Although equities and the “risk-on, risk-off” dynamic will remain key, it is worth noting that we have seen some signs of the relationship between FX and “risk” breaking down over the past few weeks. More accurately, the relationship has become more asymmetric with risk-off likely to drive more in the way of USD/CAD upside than risk-on is likely to drive USD/CAD downside.”