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In their latest client note, analysts at TD Securities (TDS) revised their forecast lower for the Canadian dollar for this year.

Key Quotes:

“The strategic outlook for the CAD has shifted considerably to the downside.  

This follows a deeper slowdown to growth in H2-2018 and a near-capitulation by the Bank of Canada.

Indeed, we now think the BoC has marked an end to its tightening cycle. If policymakers move this year, it is more likely to be a cut.

The global backdrop remains an important driver for the CAD. It is now clear, however, that the domestic economy has a real problem on its hands.   “¦  we are already short CAD on crosses.

We have revised our forecast higher for USDCAD.  

We see persistence around the 1.36 level this year. Despite this, we nonetheless think that the balance of risks implies that the pair will spend much of its time this year in a broad 1.35-1.40 range.”