USD/CAD upside preferences – Scotiabank

Analysts at Scotiabank noted that the CAD appears vulnerable.

Key Quotes:

“The CAD appears vulnerable as domestic oil prices hit fresh lows.”  

“Softer housing starts released Tuesday are also forcing a reassessment of the BoC’s tightening path and weighing on the CAD via wider interest rate differentials. The BoC is likely to retain its ‘gradual’ language in the October statement. Measures of implied CAD volatility are converging (short-term rising) and lifting the premium for protection against CAD weakness across a range of time horizons. Our FV estimate for USDCAD is currently in the mid/lower-1.33s.”

USD/CAD short-term technicals: neutral-bullish:

“Bearish momentum indicators have faded to neutral and the DMI’s are now bullishly aligned. Trend strength remains weak  however, and USDCAD appears to have found near-term resistance around 1.3000 just below the 50 day MA (1.3015). We note the absence of any additional resistance ahead of 1.3050 and highlight the upper bound of the descending channel ceiling in the mid-1.31s. Near-term support is expected between 1.2920 and 1.2900, and the 200  day  MA is at 1.2881.”