Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that for the USD/CHF pair, their view of neutral to negative has been recently rejected by the 2 month downtrend at .9899 today.
“The market recently failed at its 50% retracement at .9967 and the 200 day ma at .9981. This is tough resistance and we suspect that the market has topped here. We look for further losses to .9695, the 25th June low. Above the 200 moving average lies the mid-June high at 1.0014. Longer term we target .9211/.9188, the 2018 low.”
“Only a close above 1.0014 (high 19th June) would alleviate immediate downside pressure and target 1.0097 and possibly 1.0128 before failure again (November and March highs at 1.0124/28).”