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  • Several factors pushed the USD/CHF close to a two-week high on Friday.
  • Further strengthening the dollar was the Fed’s dovish outlook and higher US bond yields.
  • CHF’s safe haven was undermined and maintained by positive risk sentiment.

The USD/CHF forecast is mildly bullish as the Fed’s hawkish meeting minutes and poor-risk boost the US dollar. As the North American session began, the USD/CHF price traded near its two-week high at mid-0.9300.

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On Friday, USD/CHF gained following yesterday’s consolidating price action, extending recent strong gains from levels below 0.9200. It was the fifth consecutive day of positive movement, fueled by factors. First, in the wake of a dovish Fed outlook, a rebound in equity markets undermined the Swiss franc’s appeal as a safe haven.

Dollar picks post-FOMC bids

For the first time in almost two years, the US dollar index topped the psychological 100 mark amid expectations that the Fed will tighten monetary policy at an accelerated pace. The minutes from the March FOMC meeting supported the expectation that rates will rise by 50 basis points in the coming months. The elevated US Treasury yields were also bolstered by concerns about rising inflationary pressures.

What’s next to watch for USD/CHF forecast?

US bond yields will continue to drive US dollar rates without major economic news to impact the market. Additionally, traders will keep up with the latest developments in the Russian-Ukrainian saga. As geopolitical headlines become more concerning, demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the Swiss Franc, is likely to strengthen, supporting the USD/CHF pair.

USD/CHF daily open interest

usd/chf forecast

The USD/CHF price did not move a big deal yesterday. On the other hand, the daily open interest is constantly dropping. It shows that the pair has no clear directional bias and is looking for a catalyst.

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USD/CHF price technical forecast: Bullish crossovers

usd/chf forecast

The USD/CHF price is wobbling below the demand zone, around 0.9360. The 4-hour chart shows a crossover of 20 and 50 SMAs, while 100 and 200 SMAs will create another bullish crossover. It indicates a potential for the pair to go further up. Hence, the next key level for the pair is at 0.9400, ahead of 0.9450.

Alternatively, if the price falls below 0.9350, the pair may find more sellers and aim at the 0.9300 handle ahead of 0.9250.

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