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  • USD/CHF’s minor bounce seems to have run out of steam at 0.9650. 
  • The pair is on the defensive and risks falling below 0.96, as per the weekly chart.

USD/CHF is currently trading at 0.9640, having picked up a bid at 0.9630 in early Asia and faced rejection at 0.9650 an hour ago. 

The hourly chart MACD histogram has crossed above zero, indicating a bearish-to-bullish trend change. The hourly RSI has also bounced from the oversold or below-30 region. 

Further, the futures on the S&P 500 are flashing green, indicating potential risk reset. 

So, a corrective bounce to levels above 0.6850 cannot be ruled out, but will likely be short-lived, as longer duration charts are biased bearish. 

Notably, the pair created a big bearish engulfing candle last week, signaling an end of a corrective bounce from the Jan. 6 low of 0.9613 and a resumption of the sell-off from the high of 1.0023 observed in November. 

The last week’s candle also closed below key support at 0.9660 (October low). 

The odds, therefore, appear stacked in favor of a slide to levels below 0.96. The outlook, as per the weekly chart would turn bullish if and when the pair finds acceptance above the last week’s high of 0.9767.

Weekly chart

Trend: Bearish

Technical levels