USD/CHF recovers above mid-0.99s as US Dollar gains traction

• US Dollar Index finds support near 94, turns positive on the day.
• Fed’s Powell to testify before the Congress later in the session.
• Bloomberg survey forecasts an SNB rate hike in Q4 2019.

After losing more than 50 pips on Monday, the USD/CHF extended losses and touched a fresh 6-day low at 0.9925 but gained traction ahead of the NA session and erased the majority of its losses. As of writing, the pair was trading at 0.9952, still down 0.15% on the day.

Earlier in the day, Bloomberg’s survey suggested that economists were expecting the Swiss economy to grow by 2.2% in 2018 (vs. 2.1% in the previous estimate) and were forecasting the SNB to raise interest rates in the last quarter of 2019 to provide an additional boost to the CHF.

However, the US Dollar Index, which started the week on a negative note, found support near the 94 handle during the European trading hours and staged a decisive recovery. Ahead of the industrial production & capacity utilization data, the DXY advanced into the positive territory and was last seen at 94.40, where it was up 0.13% on the day.

In addition to the data releases, investors will be watching the Fed Chairman Powell’s testimony before the Congress. Although his prepared remarks, which were published last week, didn’t offer any surprises regarding the monetary policy outlook, the Q&A session following the opening statement could receive reaction from the participants.  

“We look for Powell to reiterate the case for gradual rate hikes and will focus on any comments on trade risks, the yield curve or operational procedures (IOER or the balance sheet),” TD Securities analysts wrote in a recently published report.

Technical levels to consider

The initial support for the pair could be seen at  0.9910 (50-DMA) and 0.9860 (Jul. 9 low) and 0.9790 (Jul. 6 low). On the upside, resistances align at 1.0000 (psychological level/parity), 1.0065 (Jul. 13 high) and 1.0100 (psychological level).