USD/CHF steadily moves back above mid-0.8900s, fresh session tops

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  • USD/CHF gained some positive traction on Friday and was supported by a combination of factors.
  • The risk-on mood weighed on the safe-haven CHF and was seen as a key factor lending support.
  • A modest pickup in the USD demand provided an additional boost and remained supportive.
  • Dovish Fed expectations, sliding US bond yields might hold the USD bulls from placing fresh bets.

The USD/CHF pair bounced over 25 pips from daily swing lows and was last seen trading with modest intraday gains, just above mid-0.8900s.

The pair managed to find some support near the 0.8930 region and for now, seems to have stalled the previous day’s post-US CPI slide from the vicinity of the key 0.9000 psychological mark. The underlying bullish sentiment – as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets – undermined the safe-haven Swiss franc. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that acted as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.

Apart from this, a modest pickup in the US dollar demand provided an additional lift to the USD/CHF pair and contributed to the latest leg up over the past hour or so. The USD uptick, however, lacked any obvious fundamental catalyst and is likely to remain capped amid the ongoing slide in the US Treasury bond yields. This might hold the USD bulls from placing any aggressive bets and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the USD/CHF pair.

The US macro data released on Thursday showed that the pace of inflation climbed to a 13-year high in May. That said, investors seem aligned with the Fed’s narrative that any spike in inflation is likely to be transitory and that pricing pressures will abate later in the year. This means that the Fed will retain its ultra-lose monetary policy for a longer period and dragged the yield on the benchmark 10-year US bond to its lowest level since early March.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some strong follow-through buying before confirming that the USD/CHF pair has bottomed out and positioning for any near-term appreciating move. Market participants now look forward to the release of the Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Sentiment index for some impetus. Apart from this, the broader market risk sentiment might further produce short-term trading opportunities around the USD/CHF pair.

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