USD/CHF trades with modest gains below mid-0.9200s, lacks follow-through
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USD/CHF trades with modest gains below mid-0.9200s, lacks follow-through

  • A combination of factors allowed USD/CHF to gain traction for the second straight day.
  • The prevalent risk-on mood undermined the safe-haven CHF and remained supportive.
  • A modest USD rebound from multi-week lows provided any additional boost to the pair.
  • Mostly upbeat US macro releases did little to impress bulls or provide any fresh impetus.

The USD/CHF pair climbed to fresh daily tops, around the 0.9245 region in reaction to upbeat US macro releases, albeit lacked any strong follow-through.

The pair gained traction for the second consecutive session and recovered further from 200-day SMA support, around the 0.9185 region, or over one-month lows touched in the previous session. The unabated rally in the global equity markets undermined demand for the safe-haven Swiss franc, which, in turn, was seen as a key factor lending some support to the USD/CHF pair.

The intraday uptick got an additional boost from a modest US dollar rebound from multi-week lows. That said, a fresh leg down in the US Treasury bond yields held the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and capped gains for the USD/CHF pair. In fact, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond slipped below the 1.60% threshold amid reduced bets for an earlier Fed rate hike.

On the economic data front, the US monthly Retail Sales figures surpassed even the most optimistic estimates. Adding to this, regional manufacturing indices – Empire State and Philly Fed – and Weekly Jobless Claims also beat estimates by a big margin. The data, however, did little to impress the USD bulls amid expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates low for a longer period.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained move beyond the weekly swing highs, around the 0.9265-70 region before confirming that the USD/CHF pair has formed a strong base near 200-DMA. This would further suggest that the recent corrective pullback from nine-month tops has run its course and prompt some technical buying, setting the stage for some meaningful upside for the major.

Technical levels to watch


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