USD/IDR Price Analysis: Indonesia rupiah bounces off 13-day top amid coronavirus crisis

• USD/IDR retraces losses from the multi-day low.
• Indonesia registers the highest single-day deaths due to the virus on Tuesday.
• Bank Indonesia’s status quo fails to defy hopes of any future moves.
• Indonesian trade numbers, US data can offer intermediate directions, virus updates remain as the key.

While taking rounds to 15,640, USD/IDR bounces of multi-day low amid Wednesday’s Asian session. Although broad US dollar weakness and the Bank Indonesia’s no rate change earlier strengthened the pair, the recent coronavirus outbreak in Indonesia might have triggered the pullback. The pair traders could watch for second-tier data from the US and Indonesia for intermediate direction while pandemic updates remain on the driver’s seat.

Relying on the comments from the Indonesian health ministry official Achmad Yurianto, Reuters said, “Indonesia on Tuesday reported its biggest daily jump in coronavirus deaths with 60 new fatalities, taking the total to 459. Yurianto confirmed 282 new coronavirus infections, taking the total in the Southeast Asian country to 4,839.”

Even so, the government official cites it as the negligence on the part of the people as well as the lack of symptoms shown by people who are infected as important catalysts to propel the death toll.

On the other hand, US President Donald Trump reiterated hopes for the early restart of the world’s largest economy but failed to extend the previous risk-on.

While portraying the trading sentiment, the US 10-year treasury yields register mild weakness to 0.745% whereas stocks in Japan and Shanghai register mild losses by the press time.

Traders may now focus on Indonesia’s March month Trade Balance, expected $0.76B versus $2.34B, for fresh impulse. Also likely to affect the pair moves would be Exports and Imports growth that is likely to register declines worth of -6.73% and -7.88% compared to the respective priors of +11% and -5.11%.

Following that, a busy economic docket in the US, as well as the coronavirus headlines, will keep the market players entertained.

Technical analysis

The monthly resistance line near 15,740 guards the pair’s immediate upside ahead of 21-day SMA, currently around 16,120.