USD/IDR Price Analysis: Indonesian rupiah cheers the risk-on

• USD/IDR remains heavy inside the weekly range.
• Dengue becomes the latest worries, in addition to the coronavirus, for Indonesia.
• The Asian nation sees May-June coronavirus peak of 95,000 cases.
• China data and updates concerning Gilead’s Remdesivir become the key.

With a broad risk-on sentiment in Asia, USD/IDR seesaws near 15,530, down 1.10% on a day, amid the early Friday’s trading. The reason for the pair’s decline can be traced from the catalysts concerning the coronavirus (COVID-19) and Indonesia’s domestic fundamentals.

Progress towards finding a cure to the global pandemic, clinical trials on Gilead’s Remdesivir, changed the market’s mood just after the US session close on Thursday. The news gained additional strength after US President Donald Trump’s optimistic appearance while providing details of how the economy will resort to working after the virus-led lockdown.

The market’s risk-tone cheers the news with the US 10-year Treasury yields rising seven basis points (bps) to 0.68% while stocks in Asia also flashing gains by the press time.

While broad optimism should have helped the Indonesian rupiah (IDR), the surge in the dengue cases at home becomes an additional burden, other than the virus, for the Indonesian economy. Jakarta Post cited that the numbers of recovered patients have crossed the death toll for the first time on Thursday.

On the contrary, Reuters rely on the Indonesian public health expert’s comments while saying, “Indonesia expects the number of coronavirus cases to peak between May and June with around 95,000 infections, a government adviser said on Thursday.”

Traders are currently waiting for China’s first quarter (Q1) GDP data for fresh impulse while updates concerning the virus cure will also be the key to watch during the day.

Technical analysis

Not only the recent low near 15,500 but late-March bottom close to 15,440 and 50-day SMA around 15,015 can also question the pair’s further downside. Meanwhile, a 21-day SMA level of 16,120 will challenge the buyers past-15,900 immediate resistance.