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  • USD/IDR recovers from 14,070, lowest since February 27, 2020.
  • A horizontal area comprising early-March high and Tuesday’s low restricts immediate bounce.
  • January month high can offer immediate support during further declines.

USD/IDR recovers from 14-week low to 14,140 while heading into the European session on Thursday.

Considering the overbought RSI conditions, the pair could extend the latest bounce towards March 11 low of 14,288. However, a horizontal resistance including the initial March month’s top and June 02 low, around 14,420/15, limit further upside.

In a case where the quote rises past-14,420 on a daily closing basis, a confluence of 100-day SMA and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of January-March upside, around 14, 738/45 could challenge the bulls.

Alternatively, a daily close below 14,070 may need validation from 14,000 round figure to revisit January month top near 13,970 as well as the initial February month peak near 13,775.

USD/IDR daily chart

Trend: Pullback expected