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  • USD/IDR bounces off multi-day low as the US dollar registers broad gains.
  • Challenges to the US-China trade deal weigh on trading sentiment.
  • Public compliance with the Indonesian fight against coronavirus has been worrisome.
  • Indonesia Inflation data, trade/virus updates will be in focus.

With the US-China tussle portraying risk-off sentiment, USD/IDR takes a U-turn from a multi-day low of 14,678 to 15,125, up over 1.40% on a day, amid the early Monday’s trading session.

US President Donald Trump cited an intelligence report to flare up his criticism over China’s mishandling of the coronavirus (COVID-19). As if it wasn’t enough, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo also followed the footsteps to allege the dragon nation of intentionally restricting facts that could have rang the early alarm of the virus.

While diverting the political tension towards the trade deal, US President Trump recently showed readiness to cancel the much-championed deal.

In response to the US claims, China’s Global Times term the Secretary Pompeo’s comments as a bluff to fool the voters.

Other than the US-China story, Indonesia’s inability to tame the pandemic with its unique way of not announcing lockdown grabs the market’s attention. The government is recently under immense pressure to release nearly 70 Papuan and Moluccan activists imprisoned for peacefully voicing their political views, as per Human Rights Watch.

Portraying the virus stands in Indonesia, Reuters said, “Indonesia reported 349 new coronavirus cases, taking the total number of infections in the Southeast Asian country to 11,192, health ministry official Achmad Yurianto said on Sunday.”

Moving on, Indonesia’s April month Inflation data, expected to remain unchanged at 2.96% on YoY and increase to 0.14% from 0.10% prior to MoM, could offer immediate direction to the pair.

However, a lack of major catalysts amid the Chinese and Japanese absence from trading could keep traders diverted to trade/virus updates for further impetus.

Technical analysis

A descending trend line from April 06, currently around 15,300, followed by 50-day SMA near 15,335, restricts the pair’s recovery moves while 100-day SMA around 14,550 acts as near-term key support.