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  • USD/IDR picks up bids even as Indonesia Retail Sales recovers in September.
  • Risk sentiment improves after RBNZ, US holidays limit the bulls.

USD/IDR trims early-Asian session losses while picking up the bids near 14,095 during the initial trading on Wednesday. In doing so, the quote pays a little heed to the monthly Retail Sales figures from Indonesia.

Indonesia’s September month Retail Sales YoY improves from -9.2% prior to -8.7%. Even so, the key activity gauge marks 11 months of contraction. Earlier in November, the Indonesian GDP rebounded 5.05% QoQ in Q3 2020 versus +5.34% forecast and -4.19% prior.

Other than the data, risk catalysts like fears of the wider coronavirus (COVID-19) wave 2.0 and chatters concerning China’s recent trade-negative acts concerning Indonesia’s coal also weigh on the IDR.

On a broader front, risks improve after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) becomes another central bank to refrain from going to below zero interest rates. Further supporting the mood could be US President-elect Joe Biden’s signal for healthcare stimulus.

With the Veterans Day holiday in the US and a light calendar elsewhere, USD/IDR traders can keep jostling above 14,000 unless any surprises pop-up.

Technical analysis

While August low, near 14,415, challenge the pair’s short-term upside, USD/IDR bears will take fresh entries, targeting the June 2020 trough surrounding 13,850, on the downside break of the 14,000 threshold.