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  • USD/IDR struggles for a clear direction around two-week top.
  • Indonesia April Trade Balance $+2.19 billion, Exports, Imports also came in stronger.
  • Indonesian Finance Minister proposes 2022 budget parliament.
  • Reuters poll suggesting investors are marginally bullish over IDR.

USD/IDR wobbles around 14,385, down 0.05% intraday, after multiple catalysts from Indonesia troubled the pair traders during early Thursday. Among them, April trade numbers and budget release gained major attention but risk-off mood tests the pair buyers.

Indonesia’s Trade Balance jumped from the $1.0 billion forecasts and $1.56 billion prior in April. On the same line, Exports and Imports also crossed 41% and 29.81% respective expected figures with 51.94% and   29.93% growth in that order.

Elsewhere, Indonesia Finance Minister (FM) Sri Mulyani Indrawati proposes the 2022 budget to be based on the average Indonesia rupiah (IDR) level of around $13,900 and $15,000. The diplomat also targets 2022 Inflation at 2% to 4% while expecting a GDP of 5.2% to 5.8% during the stated period.

It’s worth mentioning that FM Indrawati assumes a 10-year bond yield at 6.32%-7.27% for 2022 versus the current level of 6.529%, the highest since April 28.

Additionally, Reuters’ poll mentions, “Markets turned cautiously bullish on the Indonesian rupiah for the first time since late February.”

On a broader scale, the return of tapering chatters, backed by the latest FOMC minutes, battle the covid woes in Asia and vaccine hopes in the West to trouble market plays. Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild losses whereas the US 10-year Treasury yield drops two basis points (bps) to 1.66% by the press time.

Looking forward, US weekly jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for May could direct short-term USD/IDR moves. However, major attention will be given to the Fed’s next moves and any signals related to that.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond the five-week-old falling trend line, near $14,420, becomes necessary for USD/IDR bulls to retake controls.

 

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