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  • USD/IDR pulls back from intraday top on upbeat Indonesia Exports for March.
  • US dollar’s bounce, covid woes in Asia test the pair’s latest consolidation.
  • Risk catalysts keep the driver’s seat, US data also important to watch.

USD/IDR eases to $14,650, up 0.25% intraday, during the early Thursday. The pair’s latest pullback could be traced to the upbeat Indonesian Exports for March. However, the US dollar’s corrective move and the recent challenges to the risks test the pair’s retreat.

Indonesian Exports rose past-11.74% forecast and 8.56% previous readouts to 30.47% in March. Further, Imports also crosses 6.0% market consensus and 14.86% prior with 25.73% whereas Trade Balance shrank from $2.01B previous and $1.64B expectations to $1.56B.

Although upbeat Indonesian data might have given immediate relief to the USD/IDR bears, the US dollar’s corrective pullback and the coronavirus risks in Asia seem to keep the buyers hopeful.

While the Asian country is yet to overcome the pandemic, Ramzan start could inflate the covid spread and may also slow down the vaccinations amid fasting by Muslims. Additionally, doubts over the blood clotting and the Sino-American tussles, recently over Hong Kong and Vietnam also challenge the Indonesian rupiah buyers.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains whereas Indonesia’s IDX Composite drop 0.20% by the press time.

Looking forward, USD/IDR traders will keep their eyes on the risk catalysts as well as the US Retail Sales, Weekly Jobless Claims and Philadelphia Fed Survey to confirm the Fed’s economic optimism.

Technical analysis

Dragonfly Doji on the daily chart, coupled with the pair’s sustained trading beyond 200-day SMA, keeps USD/IDR buyers hopeful.

 

Expert score

5

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