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  • USD/IDR remains on a back foot below Friday’s Doji.
  • Indonesia GDP seems crucial after BI’s rate cut followed upbeat inflation.
  • 200-DMA acts as the key resistance, 50-DMA offers nearby support.

While failure to cross 200-DMA marked a Doji candle on the daily chart of USD/IDR on Friday, the pair presently remains below the key DMA as it clings to 14,180 during Monday’s Asian session.

Bank Indonesia’s (BI) 25 basis point rate cut follows upbeat Indonesia inflation, which in turn exerts additional pressure on the pair traders to observe today’s second quarter (Q2) 2019 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures to foresee the BI’s next move.

The growth figure is expected to rise sharply from -0.52% (QoQ) to 4.20% while registering a pullback to 5.05% from 5.07% earlier on the YoY basis.

Elsewhere, the US Dollar (USD) is likely witnessing profit booking moves after the US President Donald Trump stepped back from its China tariff threats, while giving an option to avoid it. The US ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Markit Services PMI could direct near-term greenback moves together with the trade/political news.

Technical Analysis

Given the trend reversal signaling candle at the top of six-weeks, prices are likely visiting 50-day moving average (DMA) level of 14,147 ahead of highlighting 14,000 round-figure and July month low near 13,884.

Meanwhile, the 200-DMA level of 14,272 acts as a key upside barrier, a break of which can propel the quote to June 17 high around 14,420.