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  • USD/IDR remains above 50-day EMA after bouncing off 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of April-June downpour.
  • Bearish MACD, repeated failures to rise past-61.8% Fibonacci retracement favor sellers.

Despite regaining its stand beyond 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), the USD/IDR pair remains on the back while making the rounds to 14,213 on early Monday.

The pair pulled back from 38.2% Fibonacci retracement but bearish signals by the 12-bar moving average convergence and divergence (MACD), coupled with repeated failures to cross 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, favor the odds of pair’s declines to 50-day EMA level near 14,180 and then to Friday’s low near 14,115.

In a case prices keep falling after 14,115, an upward sloping trend-line since June 18, at 14,040 can offer an intermediate halt to prices ahead of highlighting 14,000 round-figure.

Meanwhile, a daily closing beyond 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 14,344 can push buyers towards June 17 high close to 14,420.

During the pair’s run-up past-14,420, current month top around 14,580 will be the key to watch for bulls.

USD/IDR daily chart

Trend: Sideways