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  • A successful break of 100-day and 50-day SMA portrays the pair’s strength.
  • 14,335/45 seems important resistance-region to watch.

USD/IDR trades near 14,235 during early Thursday ahead of monthly inflation data from Indonesia. Forecasts suggest April month inflation figures to increase on both yearly and monthly basis respectively to 2.69 and 0.32% from 2.48% and 0.11% priors. The core inflation (YoY) is expected to rise to 3.04% from 3.03% earlier.

With the successful trading beyond 100-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMA), the pair is likely to extend its upside further towards 14,335/45 area that includes December 19 low and highs marked on January 07 and March 08. However, recent high near 14,260 can act as immediate resistance.

Should prices rise past-14,345, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its October 2018 to February 2019 downturn near 14,425 may offer intermediate halts to its rally towards 200-day SMA level of 14,480.

Meanwhile, a downside break of 100-day SMA level of 14,185 can drag the quote to 14,155 comprising 50-day SMA.

Additionally, pair’s sustained declines under 14,155 can avail 14,100 and 14,000 as intermediate halts during the south-run to February lows near 13,800.

USD/IDR daily chart

Trend: Positive