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  • USD/IDR has faded an early spike above 14,300, establishing that level as key short-term resistance.  
  • A close above 14,300 is needed to revive the bullish setup.  

USD/IDR is currently trading at 14,268, having printed a 5.5-week high of 14,340 earlier today. The failure to hold above $14,300 comes following a repeated rejection at that level since April 26.

As a result, the immediate bullish case put forward by the falling channel breakout, confirmed yesterday, stands neutralized.

The bullish pattern would gain credence, leading to a rally to 14,500 and above, if and spot manages to close above 14,300 today. The 14-day relative strength index is reporting bullish conditions with an above-50 print. So, a close above 14,300 looks likely.

A bullish close, however, may remain elusive, if the monthly US wage growth figure, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT today, prints well below estimates, boosting the Fed rate cut probability and sending the Dollar lower across the board.

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish above 14,300

Pivot points