Hugo Erken, Senior Economist at Rabobank, explains they see the Indian rupee appreciating against the US dollar in the near-term and then reversing its trend. They forecast USD/INR at 70.0 in three months, at 71.5 in six months and at 72.1 in a year.
Key Quotes:
“In the short term, we expect the INR to appreciate vis-Ã -vis the USD to roughly 70, driven by a global positive sentiment towards EMs, relative calm on the US-China trade front and a gradual recovery of the Indian economy. The sharp pick-up in inflation is transitory in nature, so we expect the RBI to continue its accommodative stance.”
“Mid-2020, however, we expect the USD/INR to rise to 72-73, caused by recessionary risks in the US, renewed trade tensions between China and the US (and perhaps even both sides of the Atlantic) and an underwhelming performance of the Indian economy due to a lack of structural reforms in the past.”
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