Search ForexCrunch
  • USD/INR recovers Monday’s losses, gains for the fourth day in previous five.
  • US dollar consolidates losses amid cautious optimism.
  • US-China tension, Aussie-Sino doubt the risk-on sentiment.
  • Powell’s testimony, trade/virus updates will be the key for near-term direction.

Despite stepping back from the intraday top of 75.82 to 75.66, USD/INR prints 0.06% gains while heading into the European session on Tuesday. In doing so, the quote ignores the previous day’s losses as the US dollar retraces Monday’s losses.

While stocks in Asia gain the bids amid hopes of the coronavirus (COVID-19) cure and expectations of further easing from the global leaders, the market’s risk-tone seems to sour off-late amid fresh US-China tension. The resulted cautious optimism is likely helping the US dollar index (DXY), the greenback gauge against major currencies, to bounce off four-day low to 99.64 by the pres time.

US President Donald Trump inches closer to freeze the national contribution to the World Health Organization (WHO) while alleging the institute to favor China. On the other hand, the dragon nation announced additional punitive for Aussie imports, to say it indirectly, after Australian PM Scott Morrison pushed for an investigation into the virus outbreak.

It should also be noted that the disappointment from the Indian government’s 20 trillion rupee aid package, as well as increased odds of another move by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as per the SBI, add to the INR’s weakness. Also fueling the quote could be the downbeat comments from the International Monetary Fund suggesting no full global economic recovery in 2021.

Further to note is the latest news conveying a rapid increase in India’s virus fatalities. “India reported 4,970 new cases over the past 24 hours, taking the total from the outbreak to 101,139. Deaths rose by 134 to 3,163. The number of Indian cases has easily outstripped China, where the virus originated late last year and which has been one of the infection hotspots in Asia,” said Reuters.

That said, the US 10-year Treasury yields drop 3.7 basis points to 0.705% by the press time whereas India’s BSE SENSEX rise 1.55% to 30,485 by the time of writing.

While Fed Chair Powell’s testimony will be the key event of the day, the traders shouldn’t ignore any major headlines concerning the global trade and virus outbreak for fresh impetus.

Technical analysis

A falling trend line from April 22, at 75.90 now, keeps the pair’s immediate recoveries under pressure. As a result, the bears targeting a return of the monthly low near 75.05/75.00 remain hopeful.