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  • USD/INR remains on the front foot after bouncing off the previous day.
  • Wednesday marks the jump in Indian coronavirus cases, death toll.
  • Indian government announces quick tax refunds, Goldman Sachs expects Indian GDP to plummet to a multi-decade low.
  • The economic calendar has the key data/events to offer a busy data ahead, virus updates keep the helm.

Although the Indian government flexes muscles to jostle with the coronavirus (COVID-19) with multiple measures, some in the pipeline, the surge in the pandemic data keep USD/INR on the bids. The pair recently refreshed the record high to 76.56, currently up 0.65% around 76.44, ahead of the European session on Thursday.

Early disbursement of tax refunds and multiple aid measures for the small businesses fail to defy the call from the Goldman Sachs that signaled the Indian economy to mark multi-decade low GDP growth of 1.6% during the financial year 2021 (FY21).

The reason could be traced from the mounting numbers of economists that predict a huge gap between the need and availability of the aids. Additionally, the surge in the virus numbers to the highest on Wednesday added downside pressure on the Indian rupee.

On a broader front, markets in Asia remain mixed with Indian bourses cheering expected further inflow of funds while the US 10-year Treasury yields remain under pressure around 0.75%.

Even if the virus updates and the combat measures will keep the spotlight, Indian Industrial Production (IIP) data and the US Jobless Claims, coupled with Producer Price Index (PPI) and Michigan Consumer Sentiment, offer additional catalysts to watch. Further to increase the burden on the traders, the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be up for a speech around 14:00 GMT.

It’s worth mentioning that markets in India will be off on Friday due to the Good Friday.

Technical analysis

Even short-term selling pressure is ruled out unless the pair slips below the two-week-old support line, currently near 75.77. On the upside, 77.00 round-figure is on the bull’s radar.