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According to the latest Reuters poll of strategists, the Indian rupee is likely to fall further against the US dollar in the next 12 months amid bleak economic growth outlook while the China coronavirus pose a downside risk.

Key Findings:

“The Indian currency has lost around 1% in the past 15 days and Feb. 3-5 poll of over 50 strategists predicted the rupee would have slipped a touch over 1% against the dollar to 72.00 in a year.

The analysis showed the standard deviation of forecasts, a commonly used gauge of dispersion, for the 12-month outlook was the lowest in over two years, suggesting most strategists thought the currency would depreciate further.

A wider Reuters poll showed fear will keep the U.S. dollar, which has dominated for around two years, on top well into 2020 as well as the yen and Swiss franc – all three viewed as de facto safe-haven currencies.

In response to a separate question in the wider poll, nearly 90% of analysts said emerging markets currencies were most at risk of a significant weakening over the next three months.”

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