Analysts at CIBC, see the USD/INR trading at 72.0 in the fourth quarter and at 71.3 during the second quarter of 2020.
Key Quotes:
“Despite softer growth, higher inflation and lower domestic rates, USD/INR has been locked into a relatively tight and stable range of 70.35-71.90 over the last month. That holds the currency in good stead for our near-term outlook. We expect some modest weakness in the INR, but to be contained within recent boundaries.”
“Softer growth prompted the RBI to ease, cutting rates early this month by lowering the repo rate to 5.15% from 6.50%. The bank’s commitment to maintain an accommodative stance ‘as long as it is necessary’ provides encouragement that the economy can receive required support if necessary. Nevertheless, the global economy will likely be more influential in lending to a recovery. Portfolio flows into equities of $7.4bln and of $4bln into bonds year-to-date are favorable in comparison to recent years, suggesting that investor interest remains robust.”
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